Friday, March 30, 2007

Volatility Pushes Market

As the market continued within its tight range, we were able to scalp another 25 pips yesterday. While the daily bias remains in an uptrend, there is concern that the EUR/USD pair was stopped again at the 1.3350 resistance area. We expect another assault on 1.3400 but a retest of support is not out of the question. A breach of 1.3300 could signal a direction change.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Consolidation Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair has been presenting scalping opportunities for the past few days as the market consolidates. Look for more of the same today. Watch for a bounce at 1.3328 and support at 1.3287. Resistance still holds at 1.3345.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Euro Paint A Choppy Picture

Yesterday’s tight range gave us very little in the way of trading opportunities.We expect to see more volatility today as there is plenty of event risk to go around. US durable goods data comes in at 12:30 GMT. The consensus is for a moderate rebound. On top of that we have both the Fed’s Bernanke and the ECB’s Trichcet speaking today. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently bouncing from support at 1.3326, but the intraday bias is slightly negative. We’ll watch for surprises this morning and trade the news. Our first barrier to the upside is at 1.3352.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Housing Data Moves The Euro

Yesterday’s much worse than expected US housing data pushed the EUR/USD pair up against resistance at 1.3346. We are currently consolidating at that level with a bullish bias to our intraday indicators. A break above 1.3350 will trigger continued upward pressure on the currency pair. A failure at these levels will test support at 1.3217.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Short Pause

The current slide in the EUR/USD currency has found support ahead of 1.3250. Our intraday indicators are neutral right now with more downside potential present. Hourly studies are trying to rebound but still have a ways to go. We’ll try to scalp this choppy market today with an eye to 1.3200 as the floor.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Reversal Complete

We were caught a little flat footed yesterday. The expected rebound didn’t appear. But with the EUR/USD currency pair reaching 1.3300 during the Asian session, we will once again watch for signs that the bull market has resumed. Intraday indicators are currently neutral. We’ll set our trigger at 1.3345.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Euro Strength

The US dollar remains weak as many traders saw yesterday’s Fed announcement as somewhat dovish. The EUR/USD currency pair has consolidated some early gains from the Asian session and appears to be ready to test recent highs. Watch for a break above 1.3370.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Waiting For The Fed

We were able to capture some pips yesterday as the EUR/USD showed bullish signs during the New York session. The pair has eased back in anticipation of another attempt to break past 1.3370. On tap for today will be the the Fed decision in the US. As always, traders will parse the words in the announcement as the consensus is for interest rates to remain unchanged. Many see inflation as a threat to the US economy, and recent weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors can’t be ignored. While our current bias is to the downside, we will try to play the counter trend as the current price of the EUR/USD approaches daily support.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Consolidation

We saw the EUR/USD pair move in a tight range yesterday. Although scalping opportunities were available, we didn’t see many good entry points. Today we have event risk to manage. US housing data will be released this morning. Expect volatility either way the numbers go. Currently our intraday indicators are rolling over from oversold conditions so we will watch for more scalping opportunities.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Indecision

The EUR/USD currency pair opens the trading week with no clear direction. Our intraday indicators are neutral with a slight negative bias. Our sell trigger is at 1.3276.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Greenspan Effect

We saw a new 2007 high for the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session. Some attribute the move to remarks by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan regarding the current problems in the US with sub-prime mortgages. That coupled with hawkish rhetoric from the ECB has given fresh momentum to the Euro. Look for a run at 1.3360 before this is over.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Consolidation Ahead

The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidation in what we hope will be another push higher. We expect little reaction to yesterday’s drop in US equity markets or today’s follow through in Asian markets. We will look to go long at 1.3212.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Event Risk

We were able to book a small profit during yesterday’s lackluster trading. It appears that most traders were on the sidelines waiting for today’s US non farm payroll data. The consensus is for a contraction from previous data. That could push the EUR/USD pair higher.Our indicators have just turned to the north after being neutral overnight. We have an entry at 1.3161.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Consolidation Before Rate Announcement

After yesterday’s wild ride, the EUR/USD pair has pulled back into a tight range ahead of today’s data. The pair remained muted following better than expected industrial production in Germany. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates, a decision that could move the market. But our fear is that our indicators are rolling over to indicate sell conditions, and good news might not be enough to move the market much higher. We will look for a break of 1.3147 to go short.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Consolidation Ahead Of Tomorrow's News

The EUR/USD pair seems to be taking a break as it consolidates around our daily pivot. Our indicators sit at neutral and don’t give us any hint of direction at the moment. If anything, price has lost momentum and if we were to guess, we’d look for another move dowm.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Rangebound Again

Yesterday’s decline fell short of expectations but still managed to give us a decent profit. Currently we see a counter trend rally underway. With the market in no-man’s-land, we will watch for a clear break of support at 1.3108. The daily pivot is holding further gains in check and our indicators are turning south.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Red Ink Continues

As global markets continue to unwind our bias is to the sell side. We are short from 1.3129. Market volatility should continue this week with major US data being released.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Consolidation

The EUR/USD currency pair broke through our 1.3200 barrier yesterday long enough to give us another nice profit. Action in the Euro is currently muted as consolidation takes place amidst a slightly stronger US dollar. In addition there is US data due this morning at 13:30 GMT. The EUR/USD is currently approaching our daily pivot so we will look to short the market on a sustained break below 1.3213.