Can The Euro Reserve

This has been a tough week for those trading the EUR/USD currency pair. While the pair has been stuck in an extremely tight trading range, it has also maintained a negative bias. Coming into the New York session today the Euro is trying to reverse off of the Asian session low of 1.3410 and test resistance at 1.3451. A break could start another rally to positions above 1.3500 to close the weeek.We will look to go long.

Technorati Profile

Trading Pivot Points

Better than expected US industrial production stymied the current bull sentiment in the EUR/USD currency pair this morning. The pair is currently hugging the 50% retracement of the last leg of the rise. Traders will now watch for directional bias. Current bias appears to be lower, but support at 1.3558 will have to be breached to confirm that scenario.

Market Moving Data On Tap

We expect the US retail sales and PPI numbers will move the currency market today. The EUR/USD currency pair has found support around 1.3410 after retreating from a recent high of 1.3681. Although we see a bearish tone to the US dollar, we have also noticed a muted reaction to bad news. But with today’s numbers we could see that change. Look for a negative surprise on the PPI to test support for EUR/USD.

Another Day Of Waiting

The foreign currency markets can expect another quiet day as traders wait for an onslaught of economic data starting tommorow. Although the consensus is for the FOMC to leave US short term interest rates unchanged, all eyes will be looking at the language of the accompanying statement. That statement may give some insight as to how the Fed views the recent slowdown in the US economy. And most economists are expecting the ECB to signal a coming rate hike in Thursday’s statement. As we expect the EUR/USD currency pair to remain rangebound today we will only look for very short term scalping opportunities.

Slow News Day

We don’t expect to see much action today. There are very little data to be released today. Additionally, today is a British holiday. We look for continued range trading.

Euro Continues In Tight Range

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to remain rangebound. Recent spikes have followed the release of weaker than expected US economic data. That possibility exists again today. US ISM numbers are due at 14:00 GMT. Some analysts think the consensus number is too optimistic and feel that a negative surprise is a definite possibility. With that being the case, they will expect to see yields on the US 10 and 2 year note to drop. That should push the Euro to all-time highs. We will look for our trend to develop north of 1.3660.