Testing, Again
A journal of commentary, signals and continuing education in foreign currency markets. All times are GMT.
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Even the better than expected housing and employment data from the US couldn't break the EUR/USD currency pair out of its sideways pattern. Support still holds around 1.2950 and resistance at 1.3000. With no major news, and the approaching weekend, expect more of the same today. We will continue to look for scalping opportunities until a trend emerges.
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade sideways this week. Traders hope to get some traction today as the US releases a flood of data. The list includes CPI, initial jobless claims, real earnings, housing starts and building permits. We will all try to digest that data at 13:30 GMT. Intraday studies are reversing from oversold territory and we will try to go long. We've been faked out earlier this week, so we will set the trigger at 1.2997. Negative surprises in the upcoming data can push the EUR/USD pair below 1.2900 again, but that would only present a scalping opportunity.
The Euro had a tough time of it yesterday. The EUR/USD currency pair never got on track and retraced early gains. The 1.3000 level is still in sight, but elusive. Today brings the US PPI data at 13:30 GMT. With an eye on waning oil prices, traders are looking for this number to boost the Dollar. With the current market bias pointing lower, only a major surprise will reverse the heavy EUR/USD pair. Consensus is for a modest 0.50% uptick.
The EUR/USD currency pair is bouncing from oversold territory. Our trigger is set at 1.2973.
The Euro traded in a tight range yesterday hampered by light holiday action in the US. Traders are looking at the possibility of another test above the 1.3000 level on the EUR/USD pair. The pair is showing strength during the London session and we will be looking to go long today.
Today is one of those days we like to trade the news. US retail sales data is due out at 13:30 GMT. The consensus is for a modest increase, but smaller than November's huge gains. Even with a bullish outlook, we can still expect to see a big spike lower in the EUR/USD pair. Add that to the current downward bias and the have the makings of another bearish close. Our trigger lower is at 1.2989.
We were able to catch yesterday's 70 pip drop in the EUR/USD pair. The pair is currently consolidating ahead of the ECB rate data. Another test on the 1.2950 support is possible today. Intraday indicators are currently bullish, but our daily bias is lower. We will want to short any breach of support.
The EUR/USD pair meandered in a range yesterday leaving profits to the scalpers. The net downward bias to the market is noted by repeated failures near 1.3000 and weakness on the 5 minute chart. US trade numbers are due out at 13:30 GMT and that is expected to nudge the market. Look to go short below 1.2980 or scalp long with tight stops above 1.3010.
Yesterday saw a market for scalpers only. Today's London session looks pretty much the same. The EUR/USD pair is still suffering the effects of its failure to hold above 1.3300. Trading in the new year has seen the market pierce through support levels. But we see price action bouncing from the daily pivot so a long position could be setting up. Our trigger is a 1.3056.
The EUR/USD pair is looking for direction. With a negative bias to the market, we find ourselves in no mans land. We'll watch for a clear move before we take a position.
The EUR/USD pair barely noticed US data yesterday. Two down daily closes suggest another test of support. A break of 1.3050 could send the pair into freefall. Current bias is down, but the US non farm data is due at 13:30 GMT. The consensus is for a substantial drop. That is based on the ADP report released earlier this week. But don't be surprised to see something completely different. In any event, the lack of a current trend will have us trading the news today.
Better than expected data from the US yesterday plus the inability of the EUR/USD to break above 1.3300 has the Euro in retreat against the Dollar. The pair continues to bounce within a tight range. We were able to capture a few pips on both the ADP and ISM data, but that was it for yesterday. Today brings the US initial claims and durable goods revisions. The consensus is for a slight decrease in initial claims. Anything else should boost the EUR/USD pair. Our trigger is at 1.3125.
The EUR/USD pair put in some sideways motion yesterday.After failing to break 1.3300 the market drifted back to support. Traders are now waiting for data to move the market. The US ISM manufacturing numbers are expected to show a slight improvement over last month. We also have the release of the minutes of the December FOMC meeting. While little is expected in the minutes it does give the market an excuse to exhibit more volatility. We will still watch for a break out of the current range. Intraday indicators are rolling over from oversold territory and we will try to scalp the market today.