Euro Rally Continues

Aided by a worse than expected initial claims report, the EUR has broken through resistance. The next target is 1.3265.

The Next Move ... Part 2

We ended up getting whipsawed quite a bit yesterday, but it appears that the EUR/USD is still trying to push higher.  Some of our studies are in conflict today.  This always means caution is our primary focus.  We need to see a clean break above 1.3210 to trigger the next run up in the EUR.  With the current price around 1.3200, and support at 1.3175, we will wait to see clear direction in this market.

There is some event risk today. In the US there are initial claims and personal income and spending numbers at 13:30 GMT. The consensus is for a slight drop in initial jobless claims.  Be prepared for a market reaction to whatever number comes out.

The Next Move

We were able to capture an easy 20 pips yesterday with the much worse than expected US durable goods numbers. The EUR/USD pair pushed to our targeted 1.3200 area.  Today brings the preliminary 3rd quarter US GDP numbers. Currently we are looking at a MACD divergence coupled with EUR/USD price action reversing from minor support. Considering the continued weakness in the USD we will look to go long again today.  Clearing 1.3169 should set the stage for another test of resistance at 1.3220/30.

More Consolidation

Although we didn't grab too much on our last short position, we still expect more consolidation and volatility today. And we have some important numbers due this morning. As long as 1.3100 holds as support, we will expect another test higher.  Resistance is currently at 1.3160.  A break of this level should take us higher to test 1.3190.

More Dollar Weakness

The Euro has soared in value over the US Dollar recently, aided by weak US economic data. Some traders are looking for the pair to reach 1.3500  by year's end.  As for us, we are watching intraday consolidation, and will go short today at 1.3113.

More Upside Potential

After clearly breaking through resistance, the EUR/USD pair is set to go higher. Next target appears to be 1.3124 and then 1.3170. Some traders now expect the pair to reach 1.3450 before year's end. Intraday bias is still positive so we will continue to trade to the long side.

US Holiday

Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate. Enjoy your turkey and football.

We didn't catch the whole move but we booked profits again yesterday. After topping at 1.2955, the EUR/USD seems to be consolidating before continuing on to 1.3000. The better than expected German IFO data pushed the pair to 1.2971 before settling back at our new area of support. Since the bias seems to be to the upside, we'll try to go long again today.

At Resistance

We were able to catch the rally late in yesterday's New York session, but now the Euro is struggling to get past resistance at 1.2870. Our indicators are currently mixed so we'll keep a close eye on price movement. A break above 1.2870 will set the stage for another run at 1.2900. With no clear direction on our indicators, we still see a downside risk to the hard support level at 1.2840/50. A break of that support level could open the flood gates to much lower prices.

Still Looking For A Trend

The EUR/USD is still bouncing around in a narrow range. Trading bias is negative, but we'll wait for a break of support to go short. On the other hand, a break above resistance at 1.2836 will signal another run at 1.2900. We are looking for the former before pulling the trigger.

Which Way?

We start the trading week with a market in search of a direction. Our bias appears to be to the upside, but the EUR/USD is having trouble getting past resistance at 1.2850.  We'll look to go long on a breakout.

There is little in the way of news expected this holiday shortened week in the US.  Leading economic indicators today and University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers on Wednesday.

Taking Money Off The Table

We were able to capture 40 pips this morning, and with this being Friday, we'll close up shop for the week.  It's always nice to finish on a high note.

Have a good weekend.

Follow The Bouncing Ball

We've been watching the EUR/USD pair run from support to resistance all week.  The pair is currently probing support ahead of US housing start data. Expect continued weakening of the US economy to give the EUR a reason to rally against the Dollar. We will try to scalp the market today while watching for a break of 1.2800 to go long and 1.2750 to go short.

Event Risk

Yesterday's price action failed to trip our long trade by a few pips.  The market has since returned to our support area around 1.2800.  A break of this area will open the door to lower prices. Intraday studies are approaching oversold levels so we'll watch for the market to give us direction.

We also have significant event risk today with both Eurozone and US CPI numbers. As always we will use the Institutional Forex System to catch some pips.

Testing Support

After yesterday's nice run up, we are now searching for support levels.  The break of 1.2800 in the EUR/USD pair has us testing the old 1.2750 area again.  And by its nature, the break of previous support now makes it an area of resistance.  As our intraday studies are rolling over from oversold conditions, we'll look to go long again today. We will keep a close watch on the price action because a break of 1.2750 could open the door to a drop to 1.2700. In that case, we will go short at 1.2745.

We do have two events of note on the US side. The Empire State Manufacturing Index comes in at 13:30 GMT and the October FOMC minutes will be released at 19:00 GMT.

Recent Profits Booked

We were caught by surprise by yesterday's consolidation.  The EUR/USD broke through our minor support area, but still held above major support at 1.2750.  With that being the case we are still inclined to go long and test 1.2917.

We also have event risk added to the picture today.  The US PPI will be released at 13:30 GMT. The consensus view is for a rebound to -0.5% from the previous month totals. In addition, US retail sales will be released this morning.  No change from previous numbers is expected.  Any deviation from the expected in either of these numbers will move the market.

The Next Test

The Euro has shown strength against the US dollar. As the dollar continues to consolidate and the Euro approaching support at 1.2825/35 we will look for another test of recent highs in the EUR/USD pair. We'll look for 1.2917 as our next target. Resistance after that comes in at 1.2960.

The Next Market Mover

US trade data is due today. The consensus is for a narrowing of the US trade deficit. This is impacted by falling energy prices. We will be watching import and export prices which will be released at the same time (13:30 GMT).

As for the EUR/USD, it appears we have reach a temporary top around 1.2820.  Our current intraday studies have a bearish bias and we'll watch for consolidation to support in the 1.2740 area.

Rally Continues

We were able to book 35 pips yesterday as the EUR/USD pushed higher. The bias still appears to be bullish so we will look to go long again today. Our range comes in at 1.2788 - 1.2813.

Break Of Support Or Resistance?

The EUR/USD seems to be consolidating between support and resistance. Current intraday charts show the currency pair bouncing from support at 1.2750. With the bias appearing to be bullish, we will try to ride the Euro to the next target around 1.2800. We will remain cautiously optimistic as long as 1.2745 is not violated. In that case, 1.2714 becomes the next floor.

Waiting

We were able to scalp a few pips this morning as we rode the EUR/USD pair down to support.  At this point it's hard to say if we'll get any momentum in either direction today.  Many traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see the results of the US elections on Tuesday. While we wait to see where the EUR/USD will head, we'll be reading the November issue of the Currency Trader Magazine.

Educated Guess

While we rarely take trades during the Asian open, we are betting that there will be carryover from the unexpected strong US data released this past Friday.  Add to that the Asian bank holiday on Friday and we think there may be some downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair.  We'll keep close stops on our short trade from 1.2706, and look for short term support at 1.2690.

US Employment Data On Tap

The EUR/USD pair consolidated and moved little overnight as the market prepared for employment data. The consensense for the non farm payroll number is 125,000.  We think anything less than that will give the bulls the excuse to continue the push above 1.2800 and test resistance at 1.2830.

The pair dipped slightly after the Eurozone announcement, but we expect the battle between bulls and bears to be decided following the release of the US data. Bears still look for a correction to 1.2660, so we will look to play this event with the Institutional Forex System.

Event Risk

Eurozone rate decision due shortly.  We are looking to resume longs.  Next resistance at 1.2780. 

Quiet Session

The London session has seen very little movement today.  Many analysts are looking for a test of resistance at 1.2830 in the coming weeks, but you wouldn't know it from this morning's action.  The US has ISM numbers this morning (15:00 GMT) which may give the market an excuse to do something.  And of course all eyes will be on the non-farm payroll report on Friday.

We will watch for further consolidation ahead of 1.2734 and then our daily support of 1.2699. Because the bias appears to be bullish, we will want to ride the next push to test resistance at 1.2830.